Would You Cruise Today? The Coronavirus Files

by Robert McGarvey

You know the hideous story of the Diamond Princess and the equally grim tale of the Westerdam, a Flying Dutchman vessel that sailed from Asian port to port trying to find a place that would let its passengers disembark. This is the worst of times for the cruise industry, with many experts saying booking are down 15% and more – and nobody is saying how many passengers have tried to cancel their reservations.

And then there is this Pollyanna moment from WHO, the World Health Organization, which wants you to know that cruising is safe. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Program said in a press briefing: “People who say we should steer clear of cruise ships or steer clear of airports or steer clear of certain ethnic groups and steer clear of other things, we have to be really careful here. We need an approach to managing risk that allows us to continue to operate as a society while minimizing the risks.”

He added: “These are manageable risks and again we need to reflect on the fact that the vast majority of these cases are within China.”

I am sure the Diamond Princess passengers are relieved to hear Ryan’s assurances. Not.

Thousands of them spent two weeks in their cabins, by order of the Japanese government. The US government then flew home hundreds of them – but on arrival on US soil they are required to spend two weeks in a government mandated quarantine.

How would you like to spend a month of your life that way?

The Diamond Princess had 500+ cases of coronavirus.

I have written about cruising for maybe 20 years. I have been on many cruises. Generally I am a big fan of cruises – for some destinations a cruise is the ultimate travel modality. The Greek isles, for instance. Ditto Alaska.

Generally, too, I believe cruising on today’s modern ships is quite safe.

But I have also studied exactly how fast – and how virulently – norovirus has spread on cruise ships and this has happened often in the past 20 years. Globally, there are an estimated 685 million cases of the disease annually, with around 200,000 deaths.

Cruise ships have been particular targets. A ship is a contained environment, many thousands of people are in close quarters, and the disease spreads. As recently as this month a ship was denied docking in Gibraltar and forced to return to England where it had sailed from, after some 89 cases were diagnosed.

Here’s the deal however. Cruise ships have become adept at implementing sanitary protocols to limit the spread of norovirus. Sure, there still are epidemics on ships – but cruise lines are a lot more successful in containing the disease than they were a quarter century ago.

You can’t say similar about coronavirus. In a month, maybe, and I for one definitely hope so. But not today when our ignorance abounds.

Nobody knows how to fight coronavirus, least of all on board a cruise ship and its contained environment.

Does that mean just don’t cruise?

Here’s a more precise question: Would I do a Greek cruise today? A Pacific cruise from Singapore to Hong Kong? A Norwegian fjord cruise?

Consider that an IQ test type odd man out test question because I would in fact do two of the three, but decline the third.

Am I afraid of coronavirus? Strangely perhaps, not so much. Early indications are that this coronavirus – specifically COVID-19 – is highly infectious. But its mortality rate appears to be much smaller than, say, SARS or MERS.

What scares the heck out of me are what I do not know about the disease – and neither do the researchers. We are still hunting for best treatment modalities, cures, vaccines, and so on.

What also scares me is the Diamond Princess story. Who wants a four-week quarantine to cap off a cruise?

My advice in regard to cruising is this: avoid Asia cruises. I would not take one. Six months from now, maybe, in fact I would love to – once the coronavirus episode is resolved.

What about other destinations? It’s up to you, not me, not a WHO expert, not your travel agent. Know the risks – and thus far I know of no coronovirus cases on cruise ships in Europe, say. And make your best decision.

In times of rampant norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships I knew dozens of people who refused to cruise because of it. That was their call and they were entitled to it.

The exact same is true today. I can tell you what I will or won’t do. I will not tell you what to do.

Neither should a WHO boffin.