Unpacked: Why I Do Not See a Big Business Travel Revival in 2021

By Robert McGarvey

Already I am getting hopeful emails from business traveler buddies, all of whom want me to tell them that the revival is right around the corner. Get jabbed with the vaccine and you are good to go, they believe, and therefore some have started concocting wish lists of business travel destinations they plan to visit in 2021.

Word of advice: unpack.  There is every sign that the revival of business travel will be slow.

Count me in the Bill Gates camp where the Microsoft co-founder predicted 50% of business travel will not return. The key reason: organizations have realized they can keep the business going without travel.  And it is a whole lot cheaper to close a deal via Microsoft Teams than in person. Amazon alone has pegged its 2020 savings at $1 billion.

Lots of travelers hope Gates is right because a sizable chunk of frequent fliers have always complained about the grind and there also are the many medical studies that correlate frequent travel with impaired health.  

Of course there are optimists. Delta for instance predicts a vigorous rebound in the second half of this year 

At least some experts predict 70% or more of us will be vaccinated by June.

Dr. Anthony Fauci is more cautious, predicting we may reach “herd immunity” by fall and something like “normalcy” by year end.  

The Rebound in Leisure Travel

I believe the vaccine will stimulate a rebound in leisure travel in 2021, probably by early summer.  Business travel will lag, and usually that is what happens. Leisure travel gets strong sooner, says consulting firm McKinsey.  

Drive vacations will come back first – and already are in some parts of the country. I am hearing about booms in holidays in the Berkshires of western Massachusetts and the Hudson River Valley in New York and in Phoenix, where I live, there already are strong signs of much travel to Sedona and Flagstaff.

As more of us get vaccinated, more will also climb on airplanes for leisure trips – at least domestically – before year end.  

As for international leisure travel, I am more gloomy.  A UN panel has predicted it will come back in Q3 2021 but at least as regards longhaul trips across oceans I don’t see an international leisure travel rebound until 2022.  Mainly because many of us just don’t feel safe flying, even though the evidence for Covid spread on planes is not bountiful.  

Of course, with international, there also are the ever changing restrictions on travelers and entry.  

Those reasons are why many believe international travel just isn’t on for 2021, not even for leisure.  

Casting Gloom on 2021 Business Travel

As for business travel, I do see it rebounding in 2021 but I see this as a fractionalized recovery. Some kinds of travel will rebound much faster. Some may never come back (remember Gates!).

As for what won’t come back, I see instructional events – where employees are briefed on the how to of using a new software tool, for instance.  Pretty much all of that travel will be nixed because it is easier and much cheaper to learn at one’s desk.

I see many sales calls no longer happening in person – preliminary calls can just as well be done over Zoom. Instead of spending a day traveling to Pittsburgh, and home, and in a 30 minute meeting, a salesperson can do a quick Zoom call – and maybe five more in the time that day trip would have consumed.  It just has not been a good use of time.

I see many “getting to know each other” trips stopped.  We have all done these – where an employer or client packs us on a plane to Midland, Texas and we have a day of meetings with local executives and, yes, we can now associate a face with a name. But so what?  I have done too many of these trips and, in retrospect, think just about all could have been done as effectively (and cheaper and more time efficiently) via Zoom.

You are right – low cost, easy to use video calling did not exist when I made most of those trips. But that’s what has changed. Technology has enabled behavior changes.  

Business Travel That Is Coming Back in 2021

Some business travel will pick up, certainly by Q3 when many employees will have been vaccinated and employers can put them on the road again with some confidence they will stay healthy.

And with some kinds of travel, employees will see the reason to be on the road.

Like what?

*Service calls.  When a customer needs help – the damn widget just isn’t working! – and online troubleshooting hasn’t worked, a body will be put on a plane to fix it.

*Buzzy, big events. We like them, we meet useful people, we build personal neworks, we may even meet possible new clients.  Send me to a meeting of 1000 in Las Vegas and count me as happy to go.  The big shows are energizing. I see good years ahead for everything from CES to Money2020 and Finovate. Maybe not 2021, but definitely 2022.

*Sales closings.  The preliminary work will shift to video calls but when a signature is wanted on the line that is dotted, an in-person call will happen.  

Are there other kinds of business trips that will rebound later in 2021? Sure. The year will not be a wipe out, as the last nine months of 2020 were for many of us.  But we – companies and workers alike – learned much in that forced break from business travel.  We will return to what is needed.

But what can be eliminated will be. Just remember, historically business trips got approved if they complied with organizational travel policies (class of air, grade of hotel, etc).  In 2021 there now is a wholly new question: Is the trip necessary – can the goal be achieved with zero travel?  That changes the equation. And we all will travel a lot less.

*