New Travel Restrictions Are Coming

by Robert McGarvey

We know boo about Omicron – not how deadly it is, not how effective our vaccines are in warding it off, not how widespread it already is in the United States and globally. But there is one thing we do know: lots of new travel restrictions are coming, lots of travel gateways are erecting tall barriers to entry, and lots of meetings and events – which had been edging into in-person events – will be reverting to virtual.

Wishful thinking may want to deny everything in that last sentence but wishful thinking isn’t reality. We saw the reaction to delta earlier this year and we will see a rerun now, maybe with even more restrictions, especially if Omicron jumps the vaccine-booster barriers.

Know this: I am planning a trip to Portugal and Spain in this coming fall. I am reasonably confident it will happen in 10 months. But I am also very confident – indeed more confident – that the next three to six months are going to be full of chaos because of Omicron and the new variants that are likely soon to follow.

Just assume meetings and events that had been scheduled for the next three months will be virtual. It is hard to see many organizations encouraging employees to travel to in-person events and they won’t.

That’s just the beginning of the changes. Now New Year’s Eve celebrations have been canceled in the Algarve, The UK is requiring everyone to show a Covid test on arrival – that includes us, the Irish, the fully vaccinated. In the Netherlands, facemasks are now required in lots of places, from hairdressers to restaurants and bars and of course public transit. In Germany vaccinations are about to become compulsory, despite a vocal anti vax minority. In Spain support is growing for requiring a digital vaccination certificate to gain entry to many public places such as restaurants.

That last is a good idea, by the way. In the US we should require proof of full vaccination status (and very soon boosters too) to gain entry to restaurants, supermarkets, and, yes, airports. So far the political will to do this via Executive Order is lacking in the White House but that may change if the pressures grow on hospital capacity and deaths begin to mount again. Both seem very possible – hospitals already are strained in much of the country – including Vermont which once had been a poster child for doing the right things regarding Covid.

Of course the Biden Administration already has imposed a new 24 hour rule for tests required of all incoming international travelers including US citizens who are fully vaccinated. Many say that is sharply reducing the readiness of US citizens to travel abroad and probably that is true. In reality the requirement may not be that huge a hurdle. When returning from Spain in October I had to produce a test result that was no more than 72 hours old upon takeoff and that was no big deal. Madrid Airport has a very good testing facility – my test was around 100 Euros – and I think mine was within 26 hours of takeoff. I could easily tweak my timing and do it inside 24 hours – and, word of advice, definitely book an appointment in advance and pre-pay. At least in Madrid there was a long line of those who showed up without appointments and tests are administered to that group on an as available basis. Those with appointments were ushered in.

When will this end? Nobody knows, obviously.

But a guess is that we need to get the world up to maybe 75% vaccinated. Best guesses are that it will take at least five more months to get the global fully vaccinated near there.

For something like normalcy to return we also need wide distribution of booster shots. Maybe 10% of us in the US have had a booster. That number needs to ramp up much higher, soon.

We also need to return to cautious conduct – mask wearing, crowd avoidance, etc. Stop whining, it’s keeping us safer.

You thought all this was behind us? Who didn’t? But here we are again and I am not expecting much improvements for many months to come. Improvement will come, when we have taken the steps needed to get there. Until then it will be one step forward, two back. So keep your travel bags unpacked. I know I am.