Sustainability Worries May Erase Your Travel Plans – Waiting for an Airline Godot

by Robert McGarvey

Maybe the pandemic is in our rearview mirrors and, for now at least, few of us are letting worries about a recession or even the Ukraine war disrupt our travel plans. But what very well may stamp void on our plans are genuine worries about sustainability and the price travel inflicts on the planet.

By most counts, aviation produces 2% of the planet’s CO2 emissions and it also produces untold volumes of particulates, NOx and more.

Numbers get grimmer. 80% of the planet’s people have never flown. At most 10% of the people fly in any given year. That means a handful of us are doing a lot of bad to the environment and this is resulting in deaths of many animals – whole species in some cases – flooding of many lands and, well, just plain mayhem as climate change hits us all in the chin.

New McKinsey research says these facts – increasingly – figure into our decisions to travel or not and also how we travel.

Said McKinsey, “Most passengers understand that aviation has a significant impact on the environment. Emissions are now the top concern of respondents in 11 of the 13 countries polled, up from four in the 2019 survey. More than half of respondents said they’re ‘really worried’ about climate change, and that aviation should become carbon neutral in the future.”

For now, however, most of us are all talk, no action. Said McKinsey, “Travelers continue to prioritize price and connections over sustainability in booking decisions, for now. This may be partly because no airline has built a business system or brand promise on sustainability.”

That said, the percentage of us who say they want to minimize their environmental impact has crept up to 36%.

Sort through the many McKinsey numbers and a few conclusions seem plain including this: big companies simply must and will factor environmental factors into decisions and budgeting for business travel. That will be all the truer of US and EU based organizations. I continue to see business travel recovering but it may never reach the 2019 heights. I see large events (500+ attendees) continuing to lag. I also see intramural events sputtering. Sales calls have and will continue to rise in numbers. Events with 50 or fewer seem to be a thriving market and that may well continue.

The point is, even if business travelers may want to travel as though it was 2019 again, corporate higher ups and bean counters will tamp down those enthusiasms. It’s not good for the balance sheet. not good for public relations and ESG efforts (environment, social, governance), and it’s not good for the planet.

Which puts the flight bag in our hands. Will we step up or restrain personal and leisure travel? For now it looks as though we are all in. Domestic US hotels are seeing rising occupancy and accordingly are raising their rates. despite cutting and reducing many services and amenities due to labor shortages and supply chain bottlenecks. Airports too are clogged with pax while many of their employees have gone permanently missing.

Will we still want to travel as the negatives of travel become more glaring, the costs rise, and – meantime – the countdown towards an environmental Armageddon gets louder?

Just maybe what we all need is a nudge from elsewhere.

Here’s the one, very big shoe we are still waiting to fall: “The survey results and McKinsey’s work in the industry lead us to believe that the market is ready for a forward-thinking airline to chart a route to a cleaner future for the industry. Leading airlines that build a business strategy and brand promise on sustainability will likely attract a growing share of business and leisure travelers, fresh capital and talent, and new allies across the industry, government, and society at large.”

Where is that airline?

Many decades of watching US carriers has left me pessimistic such a carrier will rise from the rubble. They tend to act in lockstep, much like 14 year-olds at a school dance. “You go first!”

Could such a carrier emerge abroad? In the EU? Maybe, but the flagrant failures of legacy European flag carriers leave one with doubts.

You know what? Maybe this eco carrier will emerge from an unlikely place such as the Middle East. Hell, if Saudi Arabia believes it can pump hundreds of billions into a tourist industry and make us holiday in the hot sand just maybe it will be a Middle Eastern carrier that proudly and boldly waves the eco flag.

Or maybe I am waiting for the airline Godot.