Now We Travel…Now We Don’t: Travel Trendwatching

by Robert McGarvey

Morning Consults’ recent Travel and Hospitality Trends Report should have a catchy subtitle: The Party Is Over. If there is a bottomline message to the 40+ page report it’s that we will be traveling less and more cheaply, indeed most of us probably already are.

You remember – really it was just a few months ago – when the buzz was that we were all in a hurry to “revenge travel.” Indeed an infelicitous naming of a trend but what it boiled down to is that – as fears of Covid receded – many of us, feeling grumpy about being in a kind of isolation for two years – suddenly were hitting the road and high prices be damned, we were going there, there being wherever we had dreamed about.

That didn’t last long.

Morning Consult has the numbers to prove the change has been seismic and this is based on some 16,000 interviews conducted globally.

Chew on this Morning Consult number: “43% of Americans say they are traveling less this summer because of high prices.” Where Covid chilled travel in 2021, in 2022 it’s now high airfares and, in some cases, all time high resort and hotel rates. Consumer wallets just seem to be zipping shut as we contemplate a world of economic and political uncertainty (vide Europe).

Morning Consult elaborated: “Inflation and fears of an economic recession have impacted travelers’ plans. Between October 2021 and July 2022, the share of U.S. adults who said they were planning a trip because they had money saved up that they wanted to spend decreased 4 percentage points.” In that regard, Morning Consult advised travel brands to be aware of the frugal impulses of many travelers and to offer appropriate options. Loyalty programs, incidentally, are apparently proving popular with frugal travelers as they cut costs by cashing in points and miles. I know I have done same – spending over 200,000 Amex miles on two tickets to Europe. Would I done the trip if I’d had to pay cash for the tix? Almost certainly. But the decision to go came quicker with the “free” tix.

But it’s not just money concerns that are slowing travel. Lingering Covid concerns – and, personally, I know more people now who have active Covid infections than at any time previously – also are slowing our desire to travel. Reported Morning Consult: “As has been the case throughout the pandemic, travelers are more comfortable with self-contained rather than shared transport, and with domestic rather than international travel.”

But Morning Consult reported on a third trend that is stifling travel: Business travel is not coming back. “Business travel will never return to a pre-pandemic normal,” said the firm.

By the way, 50% of Germans said they would never travel for business again. 55% of Brits said likewise. Among US respondents, 40% said they wouldn’t.

The numbers have to chill beliefs that a business travel renaissance is just around the bend.

For some, blended trips – so-called “bleisure travel” that unites business and pleasure – will continue, reported Morning Consult. “The best predictor of whether someone will engage in blended travel now is their pre-pandemic behavior. More than half of those who took ‘bleisure’ trips before COVID-19 shutdowns say they’ll take a trip that equally combines business and leisure in the next year, compared with just 5% of those who didn’t take bleisure trips before the pandemic.”

Even with blended trips, however, Morning Consult reports dipping traveler enthusiasm: “The share of workers who plan to go on a trip blending business and leisure has declined since the spring, suggesting the realities of combining trip occasions may be more challenging than anticipated.” Part of that challenge may be explaining the trip to skeptical managers and bean counters. But another part may be continuing concerns about global – and personal – economics.

Probably additional fuel for trip declines is rising concern about airline performance in this summer of chaotic miseries. Said Morning Consult: “The spate of flight delays and cancellations this summer has eroded trust among travelers.”

Travelers, said Morning Consult, have been quick to assign blame: “Travelers feel delays and disruptions could — and should — have been avoided.”

Add it up and what do we need – really – to see a travel boom? A better economy, the conquering of Covid, open checkbooks for business travel, and a smooth performing airline industry.

Picturing a world where all four are true is impossible. At least for me, right now.

You want a different answer? Wait three or four months and almost certainly you will get one in this year of uncertainty as the only certainty.

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