Travel

By Robert McGarvey

New research from MIT statistics professor Arnold Barnett makes a powerful argument that flying with an empty middle seat just about halves the risk of contracting Covid-19 inflight.

Frequent flyers on American and United, neither of which commits to keeping middle seats empty, might want to send an FYI link to the study to the CEOs of those airlines.

Or maybe just fly Delta or Southwest, both of which are keeping middle seats empty, which is what my plan is.  Ditto JetBlue. Yes, I have historically given most of my traffic to United (nee Continental) and next most to American but no more. Fly carriers that understand your health is a priority.

As for why American and United give us the proverbial finger, I have no idea. They are not exactly flying at full capacity these days. Delta, for instance, said in a July earnings call that “For the September quarter, we expect our seats available for sale, which accounts for 60% load factor cap, will be 20% to 25% of last year’s level, up from 10% in the June quarter.”

Other carriers are recording similarly anemic numbers.

Which makes it all the more puzzling that American, United, et. al. are saying they won’t commit to blocking middle seats even though they have to know that it is health concerns (fears) that are keeping us out of the Unhealthy Skies.

And an empty middle seat dramatically ups our chances of staying healthy on a flight, per Barnett.

Here are Professor Barnett’s findings:”Recent research results and data generate the approximation that, when all coach seats are full on a US jet aircraft, the risk of contracting Covid-19 from a nearby passenger is about 1 in 4,300 as of early July 2020. Under the ‘middle seat empty’ policy, that risk falls to about 1 in 7,700.”

Barnett also tells us how likely we are to die from Covid-19 if we fly: “These estimates imply Covid-19 mortality risks to uninfected air travelers are considerably higher than those associated with plane crashes but probably less than one in 500,000.”

The odds of dying in a plane crash are 1 in 34 million, said Barnett.

Right now, the only effective tools we have in fighting Covid-19 are social distancing and masks or shields.  That’s why the empty middle seat matters.

When a person is crammed in the middle seat next to you (or you are the one crammed into the middle seat). You are literally, not figuratively, cheek by jowl and elbow to elbow with the next passenger.  Their breath will envelop you and yours will envelop them.

The risks are obvious.

Understand, by the way, that Barnett’s math presupposes that all passengers wear face masks.  He explains why this matters: “a meta-analysis in The Lancet estimated that mask wearing cuts transmission risk given contagiousness from 17.4% to 3.1%, a reduction of 82%.”  Not everybody wears a mask, of course, so remember that stat to throw out at any self-focused bozos on planes who want to go maskless.

A foundation for Barnett’s calculation is this: “transmission risk given contagion is about 13% assuming direct physical contact and drops by ½ for each meter further apart.”

Distance apart matters on a plane. Social distancing, say it loud, say it proud.

By the way, Barnett also notes there is a way for carriers to drive risk to zero even in coach: “If there were (say) a layer of plexiglass between the two [passengers], then transmission risk would essentially drop to zero.”

That’s right: nil.

While you are emailing carrier CEOs you might ask what their plans are for installing plexiglas shields.   Sure, there has been talk in the frequent flyer universe of plexiglas in coach but I am unaware of any serious discussion at the carrier level.  Have they tossed around the idea in strategy sessions, sure.  But with as much seriousness as college kids in a dorm smoking pot in 1970 seriously contemplated trying to occupy the White House. Talk is cheap. In dorms and corporate HQs.

Barnett admits to a glitch in his calculations: There’s no easy way to factor in flight duration as a magnifier of risk.  The professor noted: “One might expect that the risk of infection would vary with the duration of the Flight, perhaps in proportion to the time spent with a contagious person. Unfortunately, it is unclear how to incorporate flight time into the risk analysis.”

He’s right though: intuitively, it seems probable that duration matters and longer flights heighten risks of infection.  But we just don’t know how to do the math to quantify that.

Back up a few steps, however, you may be thinking: aren’t the odds of 1 in 7700 pretty low – and therefore why am I afraid of flying?  You bet it’s low.

But you don’t want to get Covid-19.  About 580,000 people worldwide are estimated to have died from it.  This is a disease that will go down in history with the Spanish flu of 1918 (not 1917, by the way).  It’s big, it’s bad.

I’ve had it, I survived, but I know you don’t want to risk it.

The difference between 1 in 4300 and 1 in 7700 is enormous.

Don’t fly American or United. Play the odds. That’s the smarter, safer bet.

By Robert McGarvey

Tens of millions now are mulling – maybe obsessing about – a simple question: Can we safely breathe the air on a plane?

According to a recent survey, 37% of us are worried about airplane air – and 65% of us are worried about sitting next to an infected person.

Understand: what airline we choose and how we decide to protect ourselves (and others) inflight matter. There are decisions that we can make that work. And others that don’t.

For instance: read a Travel Pulse story, where a University of Alabama professor of medicine and infectious diseases, Dr. Michael Saag, offered the explosive opinion that on some airlines – he singled out Delta with its CareStandard program – the air is in fact very clean.  Saag told Travel Pulse: “If passengers are spread apart and wearing masks, then it is very safe on an airplane.”

The Delta system filters cabin air every two to five minutes and removes 99.99 percent of particles.

One conclusion: whatever you do don’t fly American or United – both refuse to commit to blocking middle seats. Delta and Southwest both say they are.  Easy choice about which to fly. Physical distancing remains our single most effective way to stay healthy and I am not surrendering that safety to prop up a carrier’s profits.  Give me an empty middle seat or give me my money back!

The next big question is a non question because the answer is plain: To mask or not? Good news is that nowadays most carriers actually enforce a face mask policy.  Sure, there are troglodytes who insist they have a right to not wear a mask but that viewpoint is absolute nonsense.

Mask up to stay safe and keep those around you safer.

Which brings us to a question of the moment: are face shields better than masks?  Suddenly mask proponents are confronted with what might be the better option: a shield that usually is easy to wash, easier to breathe in, and for many just more pleasant.

Qatar is now requiring shields for economy passengers – no US carrier is. But, anecdotally, I hear more passengers on US carriers are wearing them. Should we join that club?

According to experts cited in a Washington Post story, shields may in fact offer more protection: “Face shields are a physical barrier that can provide travelers an extra layer of protection, according to Nahid Bhadelia, the medical director of the Special Pathogens Unit at the Boston University School of Medicine.

“‘I’m glad to see that a lot of airlines have mandated the use of masks, and the use of face shields is even better,’ Bhadelia said.”

Masks excel at protecting others from droplets you may expel – but shields do better at protecting you from the droplets others around you may expel.

Are face shields flat out better than masks? You will be hearing that question more – as more of us opt for the shields – and know that at least some experts agree the shields are better.

Amesh Adalja, M.D., a pandemic preparedness expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told AARP, ‘There’s a lot of at least biological possibility to suspect that [shields] are definitely better than homemade face masks, and maybe even better than other types of masks as well, because they not only prevent you from spreading it … [and] because it also covers your eyes, it provides more protection to the mucus membranes of your face where you might be getting infected.’”

A JAMA opinion piece, signed by multiple physicians, agreed about face shield benefits.  “They are comfortable to wear, protect the portals of viral entry, and reduce the potential for autoinoculation by preventing the wearer from touching their face.”

The JAMA piece went for home plate with this: “Most important, face shields appear to significantly reduce the amount of inhalation exposure to influenza virus, another droplet-spread respiratory virus. In a simulation study, face shields were shown to reduce immediate viral exposure by 96% when worn by a simulated health care worker within 18 inches of a cough.”

Amazon stocks a variety of shields.

Word of advice for flyers however: Don’t count on airline acceptance of shields in lieu of masks.  A particular crew may, another may think different and there are no national guidelines (yes, there should be but the absence is another story of presidential dereliction).  So even if you are a hardcore shield person…carry a face mask in a pocket. Just in case.

And know some scientists in fact highly recommend the dual tactic defense.  A mask protects others from you. A shield protects you from them.  

In a world where a deadly virus is rampaging, a dual protection just may sound mighty good.  

If you see me on a plane wearing both, I’ll forgive your giggles.

Just know I am probably safer than you.

by Robert McGarvey

I remember looking with horror as the first waves of coronavirus cases surfaced in Washington State, northern California, and downstate New York – and my horror was mixed with a superiority, the distinct perspective that, lucky me, I live in Phoenix, no longer in greater New York and, like Alfred E. Neuman, it was what me worry time.

To paraphrase the poet Bob Dylan, now I don’t talk so loud, now I don’t seem so proud.

My smugness collapsed in late March when I personally fell ill with Covid-19, a fact shown by a recent antibody test that indicated the 10 feverish days I stayed in bed were in fact due to the virus.  My illness is documented in a pair of blogs, Coronavirus and Me, The Sequel and Coronavirus and Me.

Being sick with coronavirus sucks and my advice is that if you don’t want to join me in that club, stay away from Arizona and if you are already here stay away from crowds, wear face masks, and practice thorough handwashing.  Do all that because, in Arizona now, the virus is a vigorous beast that essentially has risen from the dead.  On March 31, the government issued a stay at home order that shut bars, restaurants, gyms and more and many workplaces and retail also shuttered. The virus went into retreat.

No more.  In May most restrictions were lifted – and what was sure to follow has.

That’s because Arizona has joined a kind of club of infamy where – after state coronavirus restrictions were eased – cases skyrocketed.  It’s true in Florida, in Texas, and, definitely, Arizona, which have emerged as a laughingstock trio, a triumvirate of mismanagement.

Just that is the thing: New York did not mismanage coronavirus. Neither did Washington State. They did not have much of a clue what they were dealing with (and in New York’s case it even was dealing with a different, European strain).

In Arizona nothing is new, everything was predicted – and ignored by Governor Doug Ducey, a business executive turned politician who – plainly – is in way over his head when it comes to managing a public health crisis.

The numbers are his report card: Day after day, new records are set. Hospitals are stuffed with patients and now are permitted to ration care based in part about how likely a patient is to survive.  

The July 1 AZ Republic headline: “Arizona COVID-19 update: Nearly 4,900 new cases, 88 more deaths reported, shattering daily records.”

How did we get from having the virus cornered into our present predicament? This Arizona Republic headline tells the story: Over 4 months, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey’s actions to fight COVID-19 slowed as virus spread.  

A more accurate headline might have pointed to Ducey’s inactions because he has done more of that than taking actual actions. Perhaps Ducey Dozes, Covid Soars.

Case in point: as new cases started to spike in early June, first Ducey declined to issue a statewide face mask requirement and he also refused to give cities – such as Phoenix where the mayor had been begging to be allowed to require face masks – the right to issue requirements. Finally he caved and Phoenix, Tucson and other cities imposed face mask requirements. But how many got sick because of the delay? 

How many died?

Why the opposition to masks? Why Ducey’s opposition to doing much of anything to thwart Covid-19?

Masks are the local symbol.  The Guardian newspaper observed: “Masks have become a charged partisan issue in Arizona, one of the key swing states in the 2020 presidential election. As thousands of people watched Ducey’s press conference live on Facebook, many commenters demanded, ‘Make masks mandatory!’ but others pushed back: ‘Breathing is not aggression. Fear is not a virtue,’ one posted.”

Neighboring Scottsdale, by the way, claims a city councilman, Guy Phillips, who in a protest against face masks insisted, “I can’t breathe.”  

Many here share similar antediluvian views and, more often than not, those are the voices Ducey hears. 

Of course that crowd has a powerful leader.  Trump, the president who refuses to wear a mask, visited Arizona just 10 days ago and, nope, not many mask wearers in the sparse crowd.  And Ducey seems to believe that his only way forward is to curry Trump’s favor.

While ever growing numbers of Arizonans get sick, many die, and still the governor declines to reimpose smart and safe requirements for life in the Covid-19 era.

Oh, he did recently close bars, gyms, movie theaters and a few other kinds of places again – but so far gym operators are giving him the proverbial finger and staying open because, well, why pay him much mind?

As for me, I live with full knowledge that I am surrounded by a local epidemic that the federal and state governments are mismanaging.  I mainy stay indoors. I avoid crowds as best I can. I wear masks, certainly whenever indoors in a public space such as a grocer (count me a fan of the Whole Foods senior hour), and of course I wear Hawaiian shirts because it’s a hoot.

It’s what we can do, to stay personally healthy, to minimize disease spread, and thus to restart the inert economy.  I am doing my part. You?

By Robert McGarvey

We aren’t flying and evidence mounts that many frequent flyers are unpersuaded that their health is a concern of the carriers. Screamed a Travel Weekly headline: “Many frequent flyers won’t be back for a while.” 

It elaborated that, according to research by consulting firm ICF, “Without a Covid-19 vaccine or widespread testing, 22% of frequent American travelers don’t expect to fly domestically until after summer 2021, according to an ICF survey.

“For international travel, that number jumps 41%.”

We have every reason to be skeptical – even fearful – of air travel, airports, and public transportation. This is all made scarily vivid in the “Safe Travel Barometer” compiled by consulting and analytics firm VIDEC.  What the company did was look at a range of metrics – are middle seats empty? Are face masks required? Are hand sanitizers available? Are there traveler temperature checks? Do passengers submit a health declaration form, etc?

US carriers are woeful underperformers. There are steps carriers can take to protect passengers and crew. But many US carriers just are not implementing them. 

You don’t want Covid-19 and I know that because I have had it.  It sucked. No, I wasn’t hospitalized. But I felt miserable for nine or ten days.

I did not get it on a trip.  But having had it, I am more cautious about getting in contact with people and places that may bring an encore. (And there is some evidence that antibody immunity, if there is any at all is fleeting.)

If there’s a powerful take-away from the Videc research, it’s fly international carriers to stay healthier.

Noted VIDEC: “only 31% of North American airlines introduced thermal scanning – among them American Airlines, Air Canada and Frontier Airlines. In contrast, 88% of Middle East airlines and 70% of Asia Pacific airlines have already enacted pre-boarding traveler temperature checks. Further, with the recent exception of Southwest Airlines, most of the commercial carriers in North America do not enforce travelers from declaring their recent health details, versus 33% of Asia Pacific airlines already doing so.”

What VIDEC has created is a table with carrier names on the left, and then checkpoints: Temperature checks, face masks, hand sanitizer, health declaration form, empty middle seat, etc.

Delta, for instance, whiffs on temperature checks and health declaration forms.  It succeeds with face masks and empty middle seats.

Is that good enough?

Singapore Air, by contract, requires temperature checks, face masks, and health declaration forms, and middle seats are empty.

My advice: check the VIDEC scorecard before booking a flight – and of course stay mindful that with many carriers the rules and requirements are in flux. At first, the main US carriers said they required face masks, for instance, but soon we realized the rules were not enforced. But now, apparently, on most US carriers face masks are in fact required.  

Can we not debate what is a good screening tactic for Covid-19 and what isn’t?  You bet, and in fact there are reasons to think temperature checks, while easy enough to do fast, are not reliable. Said WHO:  “Temperature screening alone, at exit or entry, is not an effective way to stop international spread, since infected individuals may be in incubation period, may not express apparent symptoms early on in the course of the disease, or may dissimulate fever through the use of antipyretics; in addition, such measures require substantial investments for what may bear little benefits.”

WHO offers its perspective on useful screens: “It is more effective to provide prevention recommendation messages to travellers and to collect health declarations at arrival, with travellers’ contact details, to allow for a proper risk assessment and a possible contact tracing of incoming travellers.”

Boil it down and in my view what I need, at a minimum, from a carrier is an enforced face mask requirement, an empty middle seat, and a health declaration form.  Hand sanitizer should be readily available too.

What all this is, though, is a changing puzzle. We are at around 500,000 deaths worldwide (about 25% in the US).  There is so much we still don’t know.  Safety practices need to stay flexible and adaptable.

The one undebatable reality: there need be better safety practices to get more of us back in the air and traipsing through airports.  Progress is getting made: the US carrier new insistence on face masks is a step. We just need more steps.

By Robert McGarvey

Did I infect anyone? How did I get it? Why did I survive?

And the true puzzler: Did I in fact have coronavirus at all?

Regular readers will remember my April column, Coronavirus and Me, in which I documented nine miserable March days spent in bed, with a high fever. I lost 10 pounds. Was very weak.  And then the fever broke and I was on the mend.  The column provides the vivid details.

Did I have it?

Last Friday I got an antibody test at a physician’s office and, bingo, I had it.  So the doc proclaimed.

Yes, I know the unreliability issues plaguing antibody tests.  But I take some perverse solace in a confirmation that I was right, I had the disease. Many of us apparently mistakenly believe they had it when probably they had the flu. Now I have the official word, I had it.

But once you are told you had had it, there are questions you need to ponder: did I make anyone else sick? How did I get it?  And the money question: why did I survive and over 100,000 have died?

Will I start traveling again? Not yet. There are still way too many questions about airports and airplanes and the lies we are told. Big corporations are hanging back from travel. Count me as following their lead, at least on this, for now.

Did I infect anyone? Not that I know.  As soon as I felt ill – an unusual event for me – I checked my symptoms against typical coronavirus symptoms and decided I probably had it. I live in an apartment tower where many of the residents are 60+ (higher risk) – it would have simply been very wrong to expose them to what I had. So I self-quarantined, for three weeks.  The first half was easy since I mainly was in bed and weakened.  And honestly it took another week after the fever broke before I regained my strength.

I did not much experience cabin fever.  What I was was very sick.

How my wife escaped the illness we don’t know. Maybe she had it and was asymptomatic (as many as 45% are believed to be).  The maddening thing about Covid-19 is that, six months into the pandemic, there is still much we don’t know. (Yes, she plans to get an antibody test soon.)

How did I get it? That is the single most common question I get and my answer disappoints: I don’t know.

I can tell you that in the run up I volunteered and helped feed hundreds of homeless in downtown Phoenix – but the homeless here so far have a negligible infection rate.

I took the lightrail a few times and public transit is a mode that is believed to spread the disease.  But I couldn’t prove it in my case.

And down the list.  I may have gotten it here or there. But I may not have.  

The devilish thing about Covid-19 is that it generally is an airborne transmission. Said the CDC: “The virus likely spreads primarily through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes, similar to how influenza and other respiratory infections spread. These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.”

It can happen anywhere.  That’s reality (and it also is why masks now are mandatory for any right thinking people).

Why did I survive? Probably under 1% of cases result in mortality in the US.  Being male, 60+, and having underlying kidney, lung, heart or liver disease increases the odds of death. Obesity is another factor.

I am male and 60+ but have no uncontrolled health issues, my weight is in range, and I walk 5+ miles daily.

Routine lab work and a physical exam have found no Covid-19 lasting side-effects.

I count myself lucky.

Have I changed my routines since learning I have antibodies?  No, I am not planning any changes in my cautious behavior, especially not in Arizona, where I live amid spiking case numbers due to premature and politically motivated reopening and ending social distance guidelines. I have still worn face masks in public.  And my hair gets ever wilder.

You could say the odds are that I have some immunity and I would tell you the odds are heavily in my favor if I play Russian roulette with a six shooter – but the price of being wrong is too high.  Ditto for Covid-19. I do not want to go another bout with this demon disease and so I still maintain social distance in groups, I wear a mask (especially indoors in a group), and I avoid large gatherings, especially indoors.

For how long will I do it?  As long as it takes which, right now, looks to be another year or two, maybe as many as five.

I am in no rush.  I have been sick, it sucked.

Avoid it if you can – and good luck!

By Robert McGarvey

Call it a paradox: we just are not traveling, certainly not by air, and we are not staying in hotels but travel related fraud has exploded.

That’s according to the fraud experts at Forter which annually publishes a fraud attack index. The shock in this year’s edition is that fraud attack rates regarding airlines are up 72% over last year.  Fraud attack rates regarding hotels are up 109%.  Fraud attacks on car rental companies and rideshare services are up 86%.

Meantime, our travel habits have cratered. Last Sunday, June 7th, was something of a banner day because TSA screened more than 400,000, the highest number since March 22. That prompted The Points Guy to run a story headlined, Americans Are Flying Again. The story did note that this year’s total was only about 17% of the typical numbers pre-Covid-19.  The Points Guy added that in the first Sunday in June 2019, TSA screened more than 2.6 million people.

STR, which tracks hotel data, pegs average occupancy at about 25% nowadays, down 62% from last year. 

So what gives with the fraudsters?  What makes airlines and hotels so attractive to them?

First off, understand that although fraud is up for many of the sectors Forter tracks travel companies are especially victimized. Fraud is up 42% in variety stores.  32% in food and beverage. 13% in beauty.  9% in apparel.  5% in digital goods.  7% in ticketing and events. All much lower than the travel providers.

But there are sectors that saw a drop in fraud.  Auto parts is down 57%.  Jewelry down 25%.  Home and garden down 51%.

The only sector that rivals travel is what Forter calls money services and crypto currencies – up 90%. And call that the Willie Sutton effect.

Which brings us back to the key question: why the big jumps for travel related companies?  Forter bluntly explains why airlines are targets: “Data breaches and increased focus on loyalty program fraud are major contributing factors to this increase over the last year.”

For some years we have known and reported on attacks on airline loyalty programs.  Lots of data is out there, for sale, that will unlock loyalty programs for pilfering.  Make it a habit to frequently check any program in which you have significant points or miles.  How often is often enough? That’s your call.  For many of us once monthly is enough. 

Forter continues in its explanation of why airlines are prime victims: “Airlines have also suffered from a rising level of sophistication of fraud attacks.”

For instance: “fraudsters adapt their behaviors to better blend into good traffic. Instead of booking last-minute trips (which can often be a sign of potential suspicious activity), fraudsters are now booking their travel further in advance of the actual date of actual departure, making it more difficult for airlines and OTAs to distinguish fraud from legitimate customer activity.”

Simply put: criminals are getting smarter, airline defenses haven’t toughened up and so the theft grows.

Check your credit cards for flights you did not in fact take but are billed for. Forter told Travel Weekly that successful disputes of airline credit card sales were up 56% – which is a graphic proof of how active the crooks are. We need to be as determined as they are.

The Assault on Hotels

Here’s the irony: it’s something hotels have done right that has paved the way for more and more successful attacks.  Just about all the major hotel sites have worked hard to make it very easy to book a room.

So easy a criminal can more easily exploit the sites.

Said Forter: “The prevalence of increasingly ‘friction-free’ experiences for check-in to hotels have contributed to this increase. Fraudsters are taking advantage of these improved customer benefit offerings to slip into the legitimate bookings. This improved and seamless experience accounts for the rise in fraud in this area.”

When hotels noted the spike in fraud, they apparently built more speed bumps into the booking process – but that alienated some prospective guests and the hoteliers went back to an easy booking process.  Which the fraudsters are still exploiting.

Remember, too, to check hotel loyalty program holdings.  It’s up to you to monitor your balances. Those programs too have been looted by criminals.

And of course be ready to dispute any bogus hotel charges too.

On the Ground

As for ground transportation, it’s a similar story regarding frictionless booking proving tempting to crooks.  Said Forter: “car rentals and ride services apply less friction in their platforms (ease of pick up in parking, no ID required, etc.) in order to remain competitive in the market and for the perceived better customer experience. The push for friction-free customer experiences has created vulnerabilities in these platforms, which fraudsters have been targeting.”

The providers remain hung up on the horns of the familiar dilemma: if they introduce friction, they fear they will lose bookings. But if they maintain the status quo, fraudsters will pounce.

For you, it’s the same story: check any accounts you maintain with rideshare companies and rental companies – and be watchful for suspicious charges.

Here’s the reality: we just do not complain that loudly when travel providers get hacked.  The louder we yelled the more changes there would be.  But we stay mum and what we get is what we get.

By Robert McGarvey

Many of us lately are consumed with one question: to fly or not to fly?  And in my case that has led me to catalog, perhaps exhaustively, the many failings of airplanes and carriers regarding sanitation, from filthy tray tables and restrooms to a failure to block middle row seating and a failure to enforce requirements for facemasks.  

But just maybe my eyes are on the wrong problem.

Carriers, if they have the will, probably can defeat Covid-19 on board. The CDC, in a travel bulletin, tells where the weak spots are: “Most viruses and other germs do not spread easily on flights because of how air circulates and is filtered on airplanes. However, social distancing is difficult on crowded flights, and you may have to sit near others (within 6 feet), sometimes for hours. This may increase your risk for exposure to the virus that causes COVID-19.”

The antidote is to in fact provide social distancing (fewer passengers) and also require facemasks.  If enough of us spurn air travel, carriers – for profit businesses with demanding shareholders – will do what needs doing to persuade us to fly again. And carriers already are showing signs of doing more.

And then my eyes land on this in the CDC travel bulletin: “Air travel requires spending time in security lines and airport terminals, which can bring you in close contact with other people and frequently touched surfaces.”

The average airport today is about as busy as a graveyard at midnight on a Monday but that will change.  There will be long lines – lots of people! – at security, check in, even the food courts. 

Thus this worrisome Travel Weekly article: “Airports prepare for crowding challenges.”

The article noted: “If we can’t make a safe, healthy and comfortable passenger experience coming out of this, we are going to end up with a protracted downturn,” said Chris Oswald, senior vice president of technical and regulatory affairs for the trade group Airports Council International — North America. Oswald said airports are “very concerned” about the difficulties that await when they must balance social distancing with traffic.

You got that right.

But can we trust airports to do the right thing?

The New York Times reported: “As to the airports, they are screening passengers’ temperatures through high- and low-tech means; using biometric screening to speed check-in, security and customs and immigration processes; and using autonomous robots to clean terminal floors.

But none of it is consistent. And it’s unclear whether the measures are enough.”

There are the problems: Does what airports do actually work? And the money question – what will they do when the first busy travel days hit them (Thanksgiving?)?

Some airports – mainly abroad – are busy putting tape on the floor and signs on the walls to remind passengers to stay 1.5 meters (6 ft.) apart. But will they?

Germans might in Munich Airport. But what about the restive crowds at EWR?

Will they follow the guidelines when there are more of us in the airport?

Some airports – Hong Kong for instance –  require a coronavirus test when a passenger lands.  But so far that is not a widely adopted protocol. No US airport has anything that rigorous and it is hard to see same, not this year.

Exactly how much testing and surveillance will passengers – especially US citizens – tolerate?  Right now much of the US seems intent on prematurely overthrowing land-based social distancing guidelines (at restaurants, barber shops, etc).  That they will obey strict distancing rules in airports is unlikely.

Where does this leave us? Basically to believe airports are safe we need to believe public and quasi public entities will in fact enforce protocols that might inconvenience many flyers but will keep us safer than if we did not have them.

And we have to believe almost all flyers will follow the guidelines.

In a country where many of us proudly report we don’t wear facemasks – despite the evidence that wearing them keeps everybody a little safer – it is difficult to believe government entities will insist upon and enforce the same sanitation protocols (such as wearing facemasks) at airports around the country.

It is impossible to believe just about all of us will in fact obey guidelines regarding social distancing and mandatory facemasks at airports.

And that is why I now believe it is airports that will keep me from a quick return to flying.  Many of us are determined to ignore commonsense and medical evidence, too many governments will appease that attitude, and the upshot is that it we ourselves who will be making our airports unsafe for flyers.

By Robert McGarvey

New data from consulting firm McKinsey suggests an intriguing – if troubling – possibility: just maybe we are waiting for a vaccine before we will fly again.

Talk about a spanner in the works.  That’s because realistic forecasts envision it taking 12 to 18 months before a safe, tested vaccine could be made available to a broad segment of the public.  Noted the Mayo Clinic, “Realistically, a vaccine will take 12 to 18 months or longer to develop and test in human clinical trials. And we don’t know yet whether an effective vaccine is possible for this virus.

“If a vaccine is approved, it will take time to produce, distribute and administer to the global population.”

Figure mid 2021. In the best case.

Other experts offer similar predictions.

Are you prepared not to fly until late 2021?

International travel is especially bashed in the McKinsey numbers, with 38% of us envisioning less of it.

The UN World Tourism Organization is saying international arrivals may slump by 78% this year.

The International Air Transport Association is saying it won’t revive until 2023.

But probably you could argue that the problem isn’t crossing borders, it’s duration of the flight – so maybe there’s also diminished enthusiasm for cross-country travel too. We just don’t want to be in a confined airplane with many other passengers for a lot of hours – and so we aren’t flying long trips.

Isn’t flying safer now? Aren’t airlines implementing new sanitary and health protocols?

Nah, not so you can trust them (last week’s column documented the many industry lies).  Yes, the carriers have banged their drums loudly, insisting they are safer, but I don’t believe them.

In fact not even the pilots feel safe.  The head of the Airline Pilots Association is on record saying the current protocols just don’t go far enough.

They don’t and know too that they simply are not enforced.  Most carriers are selling middle seats, they are not insisting passengers wear masks, and basically they are ignoring many of the rules they themselves wrote.

Remember, too, from 25 to 50% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic.  That is a terrifying factoid.  See a person who is sniffling, sneezing, coughing and it’s a no brainer to cross the street or seek to change seats on a plane.

But what do you do in an elevator – that person next to you may be a carrier, without any symptoms.  He/she feels healthy. They are not being a jerk out in public spaces.  

The same could happen with an airplane seatmate.

And yet they just may be making you very sick because they may be positive for coronavirus but display no symptoms.

Thus the growing belief that only a vaccine will make us safe.

A temperature check is meaningless.  Self-reporting is too.

If you want to stay safe you need a vaccine if you plan to go out in bustling public spaces such as airports and airplanes.  

That’s especially true for older and more vulnerable populations that may not survive coronavirus because, of course, we still have no treatment (bleach is not widely accepted in medical circles).  

Can planes be made safe?  There’s a money question because if it takes a couple years for a vaccine that will reduce passenger anxiety, the question would be if any airlines will be left flying.

Scan the expert literature and probably – there is no certainty here – planes can be made safe with significant space between passengers, plastic screens to encase each passenger, really deep cleaning between flights and down a list of known protocols.

At what cost?

You hear estimates of a 50 to 100% bump in ticket prices. IATA, for instance, eyes a 50% bump.

Will businesses pay? Probably, especially if their employees can reasonably expect to stay safe and if – as many experts now believe – business travel volume will be significantly reduced for some years to come.

Will leisure travelers pay?  That is hard to say, especially because it is presently impossible to know how much damage the average household will suffer in this economic depression.  How many years will it take to recover from this wipeout?

The probable reality: there is going to be much, much less longhaul travel for some years to come.  If you have never been to the Seychelles, probably you aren’t going soon.

If you have routinely flown on business from SFO to Taipei or Singapore, probably you won’t this year, maybe not next year.

A vaccine could change those dire predictions.  

Until then, accept that coronavirus has changed everything. And we aren’t going back to “normal.”  Not ever.

By Robert McGarvey

I fell for them yet again.  I cannot explain this slip but I will tell you the level truth. In recent weeks, as friends asked me if I believed it safe to fly now, I unhesitatingy said yes.

Dumb me.

That is because I believed carrier assurances about flying with fewer passengers (empty middle seats!) and also believed them when they said passengers would be required to wear facemasks.

I offered my caveats – don’t use the restrooms, don’t eat or drink on the plane (except what you personally bring), and sanitize the tray table if you plan to use it.

“You’ll be good to go,” I said.

Erase every word of my positive vote.

That is because carriers are carriers and they can be counted on to lie.

Case in point: United, which will not block middle seats and where at least some planes are going out full.  

Right now, Delta and Southwest still say they will block middle seats but they will be watching United’s sales and if they get jealous, you know what they will do.

What about American?  Here’s a story about a packed American flight that was triggered by this tweet:

@Tamgonzalez28

Just flew on @AmericanAir flight AA1154 from Fresno to Dallas. Apparently airlines are exempt from CDC guidelines for social distancing. All rows with the exception of maybe 4 rows were completely full of passengers. I’ve never felt so unsafe in my life. @CNN @CDCgov

In response to the tweet, American said, “We’re working hard to create more space by limiting the number of customers on each flight. We’ll share your feedback with the right team.”

In a statement to Storyful, American said, “The aircraft was not at max capacity. As part of this limit, American will not assign 50% of main cabin middle seats or seats near flight attendant jump seats on every flight, and will only use those middle seats when necessary. Gate agents will also continue to reassign seats to create more space between customers or to accommodate families who need to be seated together.”

Which means?

Pretty much nothing in my reading.

Unmasking the Mask Hoax

Which brings us to the hoax question.

Central to my belief in the safety of flying today was the belief that all passengers would be required to wear masks.

Silly me.

While most carriers say masks are required – as they should be – the same carriers are simply not enforcing that policy.

Southwest acknowledges it has told staff not to deny boarding to passengers without masks.  

Here’s a story that claims half the people on a Southwest flight were maskless.  

Apparently no major US carrier is actually enforcing the facemask rule.

Airports Are the Wild West

There are no set rules regarding masks and airports. Of course there should be but just as we have an incoherent crazyquilt response to Covid-19 across the US, so it is with airports. Some – Pittsburgh – require masks. So does Phoenix Sky Harbor, starting June 1. LAX too requires masks. In Washington State SeaTac requires a mask – Spokane doesn’t.

A big question: how vigorously will this requirement be enforced?

And how’s a traveler to know where masks are required and where they aren’t? Confusion is inevitable with the nation’s piecemeal policies. Hint: just wear a mask wherever you go in public spaces. Also know that more airports now have vending machines that will sell you a mask!

What We Need to Feel Safe in the Skies

Before I again tell people flying is safe, we need to see three things:

Reduced capacity on flights, empty middle seats

Passengers required to wear facemasks at the boarding gate and inflight.

Airports require facemasks for all.

That’s not asking for much and as soon as we get the package I’ll happily advise people to resume flying.

Until then my suggestion is drive or stay home.

Know Your Rights

Do you have a right not to wear a facemask? Sure. If you sit on the wing.

Seriously, however, airlines refuse to board passengers because of trivial attire issues. 

American has kicked a family off because of body odor.

Some passengers have been kicked off planes for speaking Arabic.

There are many reasons airlines can invoke for ejecting a passenger. Not wearing a facemask could and should be one of them.

Do I like wearing a facemask?  Of course not.  But it’s the right thing to do.  It may keep me healthier and if I am sick it may keep those around me healthier.  

It’s part of being a good citizen.

Note: JoeSentMe members qualify for a deal on face masks. Stock up. While I am glad I discovered that airline amenity kit eye masks can be conscripted to stand in for a real face mask, the eye masks are harder to breathe through and not especially comfy when used as a face mask. Use the real deal. You’ll be glad when you are on flights.

By Robert McGarvey

$550 – that’s the annual fee for the Amex Platinum card and for some years I have readily paid it, plus $175 for a card for my wife, but this year I find myself asking, is it worth it?

The trigger is of course that the Centurion clubs – for me the prime attraction of the card (and before Centurion there was the rather broad access to carrier clubs) – are closed. Indefinitely. And definitely need a revamp when they do open and that throws into question the frequently tasty (and free!) buffet tables. There have also been capacity issues so how does Amex change access to make clubs less crowded (and thus safer) when too many want access to begin with?  Certainly the clubs will reopen but as what? With what rules? Nobody knows.

Besides, with business related travel now as sparse as it was in late 2001, I don’t much need the clubs anyway.

Also now lying unused in my hands is a $200 annual credit ($15/month plus a kicker in December) for Uber which I have personally used infrequently but often I gifted free rides to relatives and friends which made me seem a generous hero at no cost. But I have not summoned an Uber in two months and don’t anticipate doing so soon.

So do I renew the Platinum card or not?

You may face the same question. Particularly if you too have been a Centurion junkie.

As it happens, recently a friend who wants anonymity hit exactly the same moment of questioning.  Listen to his story: “In early April, my annual fee was due. I called and asked what they could do. Basically, I was looking for something like a $50 statement credit or something, just an acknowledgement that they are getting $550 from me and there probably would be nothing interesting for me. She said, ‘we got nothing, but we’ll defer your monthly fee for a month.’ I asked why that mattered. She said: You never know. I said fine.

“Fast forward to last week. Now the fee is due….So I call to cancel, knowing I’ll immediately be sent to the ‘retention specialist’ (AKA ‘saver’).”

And then what: “No counter offer. So I closed the card. First time in 35 years or so without a Platinum. First time since 1997 no Priority Pass.

“But the reality is Amex’s response here is irrational. They made me angry.”

Will I do likewise?

I go to the Amex website and what jumps out at me are two new benefits: a $20 monthly credit against a wireless bill (T-Mobile qualifies and I already have two lines there), also a $20 streaming video credit that I decide to apply to a new YouTube.TV account but could just as well use to pay my Netflix bill (which I realize I’d been paying via PayPal, don’t ask why).

Bingo, that’s about $280 in credits through the rest of the year. There’s no guarantee the credits will be offered in 2021, but I imagine about the time the credits lapse the Centurion clubs will be open again and there will be renewed need for Uber in my universe.

There’s also a new $200 travel credit that’s on top of the annual $200 credit against airline fees (for baggage check, booze inflight, a sandwich, etc). This new credit applies to purchases made on the Amex Travel Portal.

There also is elite status in the Hilton and Marriott BonVoy programs and I have activated both.

And I also discovered the card offers a $100 annual credit against purchases at Saks and that’s free money. I had not known about this perk until I poked around the card site. Do likewise and you may find neglected perks too.

Bottomline: I will renew.

Who’s right, me or my old pal?

We both are of course. Different people, different circumstances, different decisions.

The bigger point is that nowadays we all need to be assessing just about every fee- does it make sense? Should I do without? In a deep recession, with no end in sight, it only makes sense to monitor outgo.  

And don’t be shy about threatening to cancel. Sure, my pal got bupkis but on a different day, with a different vendor, there might be different results.  When I called T-Mo to drop one of my phone lines, the rep informed me that I am eligible for a special senior rate that basically provides two lines for the price of one. So I kept both lines but halved the rate just by asking.

When we called to cancel Cox cable, however, we were offered nothing meaningful – and cancel we did.

And maybe next year I too will cancel the Plat card. Times may change.

Are you assessing your renewals? Just do it. Something good very well may result.